Are the Sox the latest version of the Atlanta Braves?

The Atlanta Braves won their division 14 straight seasons from 1991 - 2005 (excluding 1994 which never really existed, thanks Bud/Players). This is a tremendous achievement that remains in conversation to this day in Atlanta sports talk radio. It remains a topic because the Braves converted this amazing run to ONLY a single World Series title. They averaged 97.4 wins in that span.

The RedSox have made it to the postseason in 6 of the last 7 years, averaging 95.5 wins in those playoff years.

So all the pundits are racing around with columns, blogs, podcasts, you name it, telling anybody that will listen how Theo Epstein should work this magic or that magic and retool the Sox in a few hours time. We've heard Terry Francona and Theo Epstein both mention the franchise goal of winning 95 games and getting to the postseason each year.

Is that vision setting the bar high enough?

Lets fast forward to the 2016 offseason and listen in to "Blmeanie and the Bouncing Balls and Pucks" virtual sports broadcast :

blmeanie: "welcome to the show today, hope everybody realizes how amazing it is to be a Sox fan. While the loss yesterday to the Kansas City Royals ended their postseason run, they have given us a lot to enjoy this year again." We welcome into the show one of our favorite virtualizers, Mikey from Dorchester. Welcome Mikey."

Mikey from Dorchester (MFD) : "Yo Blue, sup? What's with the happy face on another postseason loss? It's eat'n me up, ya know? Every freak'n year it's another disappointing loss to some loser franchise. KC this year, Washington last year, Texas the year before that. I'm tired of losing."

blmeanie: "Hey slow down Mikey, when you say losing, don't you mean losing in the postseason? I know most of the other 39 teams around baseball would love to make it to the postseason 13 out of the last 14 years. So we only have 2004 and 2007 for championships, isn't it about the chase?"

MFD: "Ever since the average ticket price went above $150 back in 2013 it doesn't feel the same no more. I mean, I went to a game in August, took my brother and his kid Manny, yep, named for that Manny, anyway, we went down to Fenwa…geesh, sorry, BP Field and there weren't nothin' but suits everywhere. Geesh, I mean, I used to go to games and there was wicked excitement on every pitch, the fans were true fans and the game was the show. Now everybody is playing with their virtual conversation devices (VCD's) and not watchin' the game. Whats up with that?"

blmeanie: "Of course winning so much gave the Sox the power to increase ticket prices each year but there is a price to be paid for winning year in and year out, right Mikey?" Which would you rather be a fan of the Sox and their amazing streak of playoff appearances or the Washington Nationals that won the Series in 2015 in only their first postseason appearance since moving to Washington? Maybe you'd like to be a fan of the Fremont A's? They make a run every 7 years like clockwork and fans have to suffer while they trade away maturing players every other year in between."

MFD: "Ya know, getting into the postseason used to mean more, remember when it was only 4 teams that made it in? Even afta Bud added wildcard teams it was something to get in. Those were the days, getting in meant something back then, I mean, the Pirates are the only team that you can count on never making the playoffs."

blmeanie: "Ancient history Mikey, sure you can dream back to before Commissioner Wendy Selig changed the rules in 2012 to add automatic playoff inclusion for any team with a ballpark at least 100 years old and then the more significant change in 2013 when any team above .500 winning percentage getting into the postseason. These were changes to make the game better, more profitable."

MFD: "I can't believe youse are selling out Meanie! How can it be better when 22 teams made it to the playoffs this year? Is it freak'n hockey?"

blmeanie: "You have to keep up with the times Mikey, some good points, thanks for virtually connecting in today, now we go to Sal in Sommerville, Sal?"

Back to reality -sorry I went as long as I did, I really was enjoying myself though. Those conversations have taken place in Atlanta for the last 10 years or so, really since 1995 when the Braves won. Is getting to the playoffs enough for the fans? I agree the mentality of "you have to make it to the playoffs to ever have a chance at winning it all" makes sense. If a franchise focuses on that goal though, don't they sacrifice a little bit of the gambler's mentality of the "roll the dice" moments that could pay off with titles vs. postseason disappointments?

If you are in a market that can be top 10 in payroll year in year out, shouldn't the goal be all about championships?

Read that statement again…and again. If you are shelling out the money anyway, should you pull a “Yankee” and go for it all the time?

I'd take a year or two now and again of missing the playoffs if the moves being made were to elevate the next year to the point that winning a Championship became significantly more likely. Winning a title every fifth year would be great. Unfortunately somewhere in the back of my mind is the fear that 2007 will be it for a while and the claim to fame becomes the run of postseason appearances... sure hope I am wrong.

Twilight Zone

ok, so Theo Epstein and the Sox made some obvious gambles this past off-season, resting much of their success on injured stars that needed a place to show they were healed and ready to contribute to a winner...

Cue up future HOF John Smoltz. I thought it would work out, thought he would emerge from rehab time and contribute to a run into the postseason...I WAS RIGHT! I only picked the wrong team. Smoltz got smashed in Boston and proceeded to get released/traded and he gets the ball in St. Louis a couple of times now and has one win with a 0.82 ERA and a .727 WHIP. Pretty fancy numbers on a small sample size. Compare them to his 8 starts in Boston, his 8.32 ERA and his 1.70 WHIP. Little bigger sample size but it's like he entered the twilight zone (NL) and voila, his slider slides a little more, his splitter splits a little more. As a (secondary) Brave fan I am somewhat happy for the man...good for him, hope he continues to help out the Cardinals and make a run for another ring.

Cue up Brad Penny. I had doubts about his signing with Boston but felt if he could eat innings and be the 4th or 5th guy that would be fine. He is a big man and I thought big men last long in games...silly me. In his 24 starts with Boston before being released outright, he dazzled the AL to a tune of 5.61 ERA and 1.534 WHIP while averaging 5.4 innings per start. Neither successful nor an inning eater he didn't really pan out. After getting released there is no reason for another team not to take a chance on you, especially if your #5 guy is worse. So the Giants reach into the portal and pull Mr. Brad Penny through to the twilight zone (NL) and today he made his first start. Guess what? He pitched a very economical 8 innings, giving up zero (0) runs on 5 hits and a single walk. I thought I better get the calculator and check how many times he made it to or through the 8th inning for the Sox this year...guess what, his longest outing in a RedSox uni was 6 2/3 innings on May 20th. Bravo to you too Brad Penny. You have found the fountain of youth and it's called the National Pitchers Ready to Retire League.

Ok, so in my next life I want to be an agent for ML pitchers, guess what teams I'm going to negotiate with whenever I have a chance? Yep, NL teams. Seems simple enough. Name 3 (and I will give you 2) dominant NL pitchers that had success in the AL after the NL for more than a single year? C'mon? Pedro, yep. Schilling, yep. Nolan Ryan? Nah, he was dominant but he never dominated. Tom Seaver? Nope, too late in the AL. I cannot think of another, can you?

Holes

In 2003 there was a movie released called holes. The description from IMDB is "A wrongfully convicted boy is sent to a brutal desert detention camp where he joins the job of digging holes for some mysterious reason".

What does this have to do with sports right now? Probably nothing. Needed a title for this post though and "Holes" seemed appropriate. Besides, "digging holes for some mysterious reason" sounds a little like the RedSox lately.

The Yankees won a dramatic game in a dramatic fashion last night on an Arod 2-run blast in the 15th hanging up the only non-zeroes of the night.

What the RedSox have accomplished, if accomplishments are like "whole" numbers with a scale that goes negative too, is almost unimaginable on July 14th, the night of the All-Star game.

On the 14th, the Sox owned a modest 3 game lead over the Yankees, were 20 games above .500 and seemingly in the driver's seat and healthy. Here is what I would have said that day had I posted a recap of the first half:

Catcher - Varitek has been a pleasant surprise so far, not for his average but for his production. He has been contributing and not hurting the team so far and has, for the moment, quieted the criticisms.

First - Youkilis has been very good. His torrid start to the season went into May. He is a force to be dealt with and a good partner for Pedroia on the right side of the infield.

Second - Pedroia hasn't gone on a tear yet but has played well and as always, played hard. Will likely have a great 2nd half.

Short - the position of mystery for Theo Epstein's tenure. Nick Green has played way above expectations while filling in for injured Jed Lowry. Need Lowry's return to improve for the 2nd half.

Third - Mike Lowell has been hitting well but is limited now in the field. He no longer is a very good defensive player. Better results so far than could have been expected.

Leftfield - Jason Bay has had a first half that is reason enough to resign him now. Enough said.

Centerfield - Up and down, Jacoby Ellsbury has recently found some consistency hitting lower in the lineup. Getting on base more will help in the 2nd half.

Rightfield - JD Drew has hit decently but without much power this season. He continues to play good D and is what he is.

DH - biggest disappointment this season so far. David Ortiz is lucky to have the support of the management and maintain his status as an everyday player.

Starting Pitching - early trouble by Dice K has left him rehabbing. Beckett is Beckett and Lester is Lester. Penny has had bright spots and won some games. Wakefield has been terrific and made his first All-Star game.

Relievers - awesome combination of arms, best in baseball despite Papelbon's wildness and love for pitches not his fastball.

Overall grade :A-


Now, since July 14th, things have dramatically changed. Read this reply by an unnamed fan (not me - wish it had been though, my thoughts completely) on the Boston.com (boston globe) site yesterday to an article:

Ok - it's reality time
Theo finally remembered that this is a business and not an old boys country club.
He jettisoned Smoltz- too late but better late than never- sometimes experiments don't work - lose him and move on
Now Papi - When he warmed up in June and raised his average to a lofty .241, everyone gave him a pass. Well, now he's back to .221 and still hitting in the middle of the order. I AM a statistician, but anyone with a grade 5 education knows that after 3 months hitting .241 total, you need to be way under .200 in July to drop it back to .221, like around .180 or less. He's not even thinking about baseball. He's trying to play CYA for the steroid thing.
Now he says he didn't know - the other 103 guys knew, but someone forgot to tell the biggest and fattest guy in the room....yah probably...cut him loose - waive him, designate him, put him on a bus to anywhere with a one-way ticket. Jonathan Van Every won't bat .180...and he can actually play the field instead of just block the sunshine in half of the dugout
Brad Penny - needs Smoltz therapy - another guy with only one pitch and it's very hittable
Shortstop - call me up. I'm 62 and can play better than they can......what a disgrace.
Jason Bay - wrap up your leg and get out there dude- the season is slipping away - it's not Pittsburgh, where the season ends when the Steelers head to pre-season camp
Ditto for Drew - suck it up
And last and certainly least - V-tek, Capt....now the capt. of the Titanic....hitting in the lofty .220s again......41 RBI with all those guys in front of you getting on base...you are a sad sack....be glad you're a catcher of sorts- any other position you'd be out of baseball or the third stringer on the Ft. Myers Miracle..." called strike three " - Orsillo's favorite comment when you're up......when you come up with a guy on base, I hope you strike out, so there won't be a double play
The Yankees are running away and here come the Rays.......there are no prizes for finishing third
By the way - Wakefiled went to the all-star game in fine health
didn't pitch there or even warm up
comes home and can't walk - what the hell was he doing there??????
Did he try to climb the St. Louis Arch from the outside and fall off?
And there sits our leader, Francona...what a frontrunner.....things are bad dude...wake up and do something...start showing some emotion...I wish someone would take his private capt. chair in the dugout and rap it over his head....the season is going away - do you know? - do you care?
I've watched day after day of excuses, never raising a voice, never getting fired up...no wonder the players love him...it doesn't matter if they do anything.....
CAN'T WATCH ANYMORE - thank goodness I have the MLB package...there are other real games to watch........ by the way, how is Cliff Lee doing with Philly? Couldn't we have had him?..ditto Halladay...........


So back to Holes. The Sox have dug a hole that is far greater than the 4.5 games they currently sit behind the Yankees. Lets count the # of holes:

Hole #1 : catcher. What? You thought getting Victor Martinez was the patch job for this pothole? It coulda shoulda but until I see Tito using Martinez more often as catcher I am not convinced. His loyalty to Varitek will leave this as a semi-filled hole.

Hole #2 : shortstop. Lowry's recent injury to his arm/hand didn't take a hot bat out of the lineup, it was the further developing sinkhole known as shortstop for the RedSox organization. This hole continues to get bigger and bigger.

Hole #3 : thirdbase. Mike Lowell can slap the ball around still but doesn't really drive it anymore. He is a liability at third now and the beginnings of a nice big pothole has emerged. While it isn't and won't become a sinkhole, a hole is a hole.

Hole #4 : Leftfield. Jason Bay was tremendous through most of June. Then he slumped, all the way down to the .250 range. That would have been ok, slumps happen, rebound in the 2nd half and all slumps get forgotten. Unfortunately he now has hamstring issues and while still slumping is out of the lineup.

Hole #5 : Rightfield. JD Drew's play has slumped in June/July as well. He too battles nagging injuries and we haven't seen his annual back issues show up yet.

Hole #6 : DH. David Ortiz has struggled to hit .220 all year long. His bat is no longer feared by the opposition and with the defensive shift his lackluster bat often grounds out to the right side.

Hole #7 : SP. The rotation was over crowded a month ago. Down goes Wake. Down goes DiceK (thankfully). Down and out goes Smoltz. Add in a Penny that has no shine anymore and the rotation is in trouble. Clay Buchholz, the untouchable young arm, doesn't appear ready emotionally to pitch and help. Today should be fun to watch and see if he self destructs in Yankee Stadium.

It is tough to feel sorry for your team. As has been written, so much promise was put on signings of past injured players, players that were relatively cheap in nature. It really hasn't panned out and the revamping that will need to be done again in the offseason will be a true test.

What can this hole ridden team do for the last 54 games? Maybe they can still win the wildcard, maybe. They need Jason Bay back soon and producing again. They need Tito to catch Martinez more often than Varitek. They need Buchholz and Penny to come up big once in a while and eat some innings. They need Ortiz to hit .250 the rest of the way with some RBI once in a while. They need Nick Green not to throw away balls late in important games. They need the players that have been steady to continue to be steady. Phew, seems like a long list of things to hope for over a short period of time.

If you fill in holes as fast as they appear are you ever getting ahead?

Preview - Yanks Sox for 4 in the Bronx

The rest of the world seems to complain whenever the RedSox and Yankees square off:

"ESPN loves the Sox/Yankees"
"There are other games/events ya know"
"I'm sick of the Sox and yankees"
etc etc etc

But for RedSox and Yankee fans, there is nothing better.

This is old school :

Cowboys vs. Redskins


Canadiens vs. Bruins



Celtics vs. Lakers



Jack vs. Arnold



Ali vs. Frazier



Phelps vs. Cavic ?




The biggest difference in Yankees/RedSox matchups and these historical matchups is how frequently they occur. I get it, the Sox and Yanks play at least 19 times a season. With any luck, more in the playoffs.

The peak of modern wars between the two teams was surely in the 2003/2004 timeframe when things got a little crazy. There was the Pedro stares into the dugout, the Pedro throw down of Zimm, the Aaron Freak'n Boone game, the idiots, the comeback in 2004, the bloody sock. Exciting times for fans of both teams.







Lately things have settled down considerably, you know, nothing newsworthy really. Pettitte/Clemens/Arod/Manny/Ortiz connections/allegations to PED's. The courting and signing of Mark Texiera. The Joba Chamberlain and Kevin Youkilis love fest. Jeter getting plunked every series it seems.

The 8-0 start to the season series this year by the Sox has set the stage for an interesting 4 game series in the Bronx. The goose-egg means nothing going into these 4 games, really. New York has been the much more consistent and potent team since the all-star break and seemingly has the edge going into the series.

Momentum: While momentum in baseball can be easily overstated and reversed it currently favors the Yankees. The Yankees are 14-5 since the break and have charged ahead of the Sox by 2 in the loss column. The Sox on the other hand have slumped to an 8-10 record since the All-Star game.

Starting Pitching matchups:

Thursday - Smoltz vs. Chamberlain - clearly the edge goes to NY ; Smoltz has not thrown effective starts together and seemingly gets beat up big in an inning along the way. Chamberlain is coming off one of his best starts in his career.

Friday - Beckett vs. Burnett - the most compelling matchup of the weekend . Beckett has been fantastic after a terrible April start. Burnett has been up and down at times but overall very effective. While the matchup suggests it will be the best game of the series, sometimes those games will be the 12-10 type of game.

Saturday - Buchholz vs. Sabbathia - the Yankees have a huge edge here. Sabbathia hasn't pitched as great as the Yankees hoped but this type of matchup, in the pennant race, in August, is exactly what will change their perception. Buchholz has been less than great since his initial outing a few weeks ago.

Sunday - Lester vs. Pettitte - Lester gives the Sox a chance to win every time out. The other night he did just that but the team still lost in a pitcher's duel with Tampa and decided in the 13th inning. Pettitte has been very inconsistent. His time is winding down, you don't know if you will get a good start or not out of him. He still is capable. Advantage Sox in this one.


Bullpens: Much has been written about the Sox advantage this year in the pen. Lately they have been a little more hittable and showing some wear and tear from the innings needed in support of Smoltz, Penny, Dice K and Buchholz. The Yankee pen has been terrible early in the year (3 or 4 players since removed) and good lately. No clear edge for either team, if starters don't go into 7th innings most games it could get interesting with the pens taking over.

Hitting: As I said above, the Yankees are on a roll and the Sox are not. Arod has been hitting better (not for power though), Texiera is lining up votes for MVP, Jeter is Jeter, Melka hit a cycle recently, and Johnny Damon has been big lately. On the other side, the bats have been slumping for the most part. See prior post below. Youkilis and Pedroia have turned it around and are smacking the ball around as is new comer Victor Martinez. Jason Bay will miss a couple games most likely as he aggrevated his hamstring problem last night. JD Drew is also hurting but will have to play with the news on Bay. Mike Lowell is a shell of his former self, still can slap the ball around but defensively does not even resemble his stellar fielding days now behind him. Ellsbury has been steady and good, Varitek, while the ESPN made mention his HR and RBI numbers are 4th best in AL for catchers he is not to be feared. Nor is Lowry at SS. Ortiz used to be walked to avoid situations, now players will be walked to get to him. Advantage Yankees.

What does it all mean? Who knows? Did anybody expect the RedSox to win the first eight meetings this year? Really? A sweep by the Yankees would not totally surprise me. Neither would a split...or any other result.

My prediction? Yankees 3 of 4.

Tell your non-Sox/Yankee friends to relax and enjoy the coverage. ESPN might not recognize there are other teams in baseball this weekend and rightly so...this is Yankees RedSox after all.

July in RedSox Nation

So a normal July afternoon, nice day to be at work and something is nagging me, bothering me, deep in the far reaches of my mind...oh yeah, the Sox have an afternoon game, getaway day for the A's to conclude the four game series in Boston. I throw ESPN's gamecast window up on the screen, check it periodically.

Here are some highlights they flashed up on the screen during the game:

After the A's took the 4-1 lead in the 6th inning, ESPN gave the A's an 80% chance to win the game, nice statement of the ability of the Sox to comeback, trends don't lie do they:


As the Sox batted, here are some interesting July stats on a few of the key players:


Jason Bay, AL MVP candidate through June



JD Drew, much maligned rightfielder, doing reasonably well, without power through June



David Ortiz, struggling all year, most would say he has come out of it lately, July stats don't lie:


Jason Varitek, struggling the last couple of years, little more pop this year but July was tough and actually lowered his average


Newcomer Adam Laroche was supposed to be helpful, so far (July includes his time in Pittsburgh too) he hasn't


Finally, Youk, Kevin Youkilis. Youk was heading towards an MVP award showdown with Bay earlier in the year. He maintained an average over .400 for a long time, his OBP was hovering around .520 through May. Here is his July:


6 out of 9 hitters in the lineup most days are about to conclude a very miserable month of July. No wonder the team was 47-30 through June and 11-12 in July (7-4 before the all-star break in July, 4-8 after so far).

Usually teams have a player or two slumping, this is ridiculous. Either they get Gonzalez from San Diego AND Martinez from Cleveland or hope and pray they come out of their collective funk in August and September.

I hope they make a move, shake things up a bit, roll the dice. They aren't in first anymore, no lock on a playoff spot, why not?

Expectations?

Take a look at the comparison above of two starting pitchers. Both are pretty bad. Both are veteran pitchers and both have been considered aces during their respective careers. Both could possibly be headed to the Hall of Fame.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, should either pitcher be replaced in the rotation with somebody acquired through a trade? One of these two pitchers will not be replaced, guaranteed. The other is currently on the hot seat and bloggers and writers are slicing him up and asking the fans to "stick a fork in him".

Pitcher B (above) is Josh Beckett's beginning of his 2009 season. Beckett will not be replaced in any trades made by the RedSox this week or this year or next. Currently he has rebounded to be 11-4 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, very good considering his start in April.

Pitcher A is John Smoltz and his 2009 to date. While John Smoltz is no longer an ace in MLB, he can and should be an effective 4th or 5th starter this season. He is coming off surgery so the question remains, what should the expectations have been and continue to be?

The stats don't lie. Both Beckett in April, and Smoltz in June/July have stunk it up. Smoltz and the Sox leaders are all asking for patience. Patience isn't always something the fans in Boston have a lot of. I happen to agree with giving it more time. Smoltz, by everybody's accounts, has good stuff, his pitch location seems to be his achilles heel this year so far. Unfortunately for the Sox fans, the Yankees have surged ahead in the division during Smoltz' time with the big league club. People make parrallels and point fingers during tough times. Smoltz hasn't really helped the Sox win too many games yet. Easy target. Neither has the 2.8 runs per game average the offense has scored since the all-star break two weeks ago.

Smoltz will be given every opportunity to work it out. What remains to be seen is what happens at the trade deadline? Do the Sox go deeper into discussions for Halladay or stick to the bigger needs (IMO), the needs of a bat (Laroche was a nice platoon fix, need something bigger). The next couple of days should be exciting times in baseball. Maybe John Smoltz will get pushed out of the rotation by one of the best in baseball, maybe he will last long enough to contribute...

Eight Days a Week

Eight full days from now the trade deadline will come down and most of the significant moves will be done for this season. In the Providence Journal writer Joe McDonald intimates Theo Epstein is not willing to move both Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly in a deal for Roy Halladay.

Me either.

I don't want another starting pitcher. Sure, never have enough, Wake's annual back problems, Penny and Smoltz doing their 5 inning dance each time out and of course Dice K's troubles...I get it. But with Beckett and Lester at the top of the rotation you have a luxury to potentially go get some offensive help that is much needed.


I know all the talk over Hanley Ramirez and the Marlins not likely to deal him back or anywhere has been exhausted, but what if the Sox make it sweet enough that the Marlins have to consider it?

Start with Buchholz.

While his accomplishments have been significant and notable, his ability to be a chip in a trade is a greater value to me than filling him into the rotation this year and for the future.


Add a little Casey Kelly. The 19 year old Sox player is trying to find his spot, either in SS (he can hit) or SP. For this year they have let him do both in Rookie Ball and A ball. Kelly was their #1 pick last year so he would be a lot to give up...just the kind of candy the Marlins are looking for as part of a package for somebody as good as Ramirez.

The Marlins would have to recognize this year isn't looking great for them, they have made a nice push prior to the break and got close to the Phillies but now the Phils are playing more to their talent level and have separated themselves from the pack a bit.

I don't know what other pieces would need to be added to make this a viable move for both teams but I, for one, would throw this out there with Ramirez being the piece coming back. Unless of course they wanted Ellsbury included or something along those lines. Lowrie, sure. Masterson, sure. Delcarmen, sure. Ramirez' 6 yr. $70m contract is low by yesterday's standards so the Marlins are in a position to not be nervous about the financials associated with Ramirez too.

If I'm GM for a day, I'd inquire about Ramirez for Buchholz, Kelly and (pick two) Lowrie, Masterson or Delcarmen. Still not sure the Marlins would bite but the upside they would receive with Buchholz and Kelly seems very high.

What do you think?