Twilight Zone

ok, so Theo Epstein and the Sox made some obvious gambles this past off-season, resting much of their success on injured stars that needed a place to show they were healed and ready to contribute to a winner...

Cue up future HOF John Smoltz. I thought it would work out, thought he would emerge from rehab time and contribute to a run into the postseason...I WAS RIGHT! I only picked the wrong team. Smoltz got smashed in Boston and proceeded to get released/traded and he gets the ball in St. Louis a couple of times now and has one win with a 0.82 ERA and a .727 WHIP. Pretty fancy numbers on a small sample size. Compare them to his 8 starts in Boston, his 8.32 ERA and his 1.70 WHIP. Little bigger sample size but it's like he entered the twilight zone (NL) and voila, his slider slides a little more, his splitter splits a little more. As a (secondary) Brave fan I am somewhat happy for the man...good for him, hope he continues to help out the Cardinals and make a run for another ring.

Cue up Brad Penny. I had doubts about his signing with Boston but felt if he could eat innings and be the 4th or 5th guy that would be fine. He is a big man and I thought big men last long in games...silly me. In his 24 starts with Boston before being released outright, he dazzled the AL to a tune of 5.61 ERA and 1.534 WHIP while averaging 5.4 innings per start. Neither successful nor an inning eater he didn't really pan out. After getting released there is no reason for another team not to take a chance on you, especially if your #5 guy is worse. So the Giants reach into the portal and pull Mr. Brad Penny through to the twilight zone (NL) and today he made his first start. Guess what? He pitched a very economical 8 innings, giving up zero (0) runs on 5 hits and a single walk. I thought I better get the calculator and check how many times he made it to or through the 8th inning for the Sox this year...guess what, his longest outing in a RedSox uni was 6 2/3 innings on May 20th. Bravo to you too Brad Penny. You have found the fountain of youth and it's called the National Pitchers Ready to Retire League.

Ok, so in my next life I want to be an agent for ML pitchers, guess what teams I'm going to negotiate with whenever I have a chance? Yep, NL teams. Seems simple enough. Name 3 (and I will give you 2) dominant NL pitchers that had success in the AL after the NL for more than a single year? C'mon? Pedro, yep. Schilling, yep. Nolan Ryan? Nah, he was dominant but he never dominated. Tom Seaver? Nope, too late in the AL. I cannot think of another, can you?

Expectations?

Take a look at the comparison above of two starting pitchers. Both are pretty bad. Both are veteran pitchers and both have been considered aces during their respective careers. Both could possibly be headed to the Hall of Fame.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, should either pitcher be replaced in the rotation with somebody acquired through a trade? One of these two pitchers will not be replaced, guaranteed. The other is currently on the hot seat and bloggers and writers are slicing him up and asking the fans to "stick a fork in him".

Pitcher B (above) is Josh Beckett's beginning of his 2009 season. Beckett will not be replaced in any trades made by the RedSox this week or this year or next. Currently he has rebounded to be 11-4 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, very good considering his start in April.

Pitcher A is John Smoltz and his 2009 to date. While John Smoltz is no longer an ace in MLB, he can and should be an effective 4th or 5th starter this season. He is coming off surgery so the question remains, what should the expectations have been and continue to be?

The stats don't lie. Both Beckett in April, and Smoltz in June/July have stunk it up. Smoltz and the Sox leaders are all asking for patience. Patience isn't always something the fans in Boston have a lot of. I happen to agree with giving it more time. Smoltz, by everybody's accounts, has good stuff, his pitch location seems to be his achilles heel this year so far. Unfortunately for the Sox fans, the Yankees have surged ahead in the division during Smoltz' time with the big league club. People make parrallels and point fingers during tough times. Smoltz hasn't really helped the Sox win too many games yet. Easy target. Neither has the 2.8 runs per game average the offense has scored since the all-star break two weeks ago.

Smoltz will be given every opportunity to work it out. What remains to be seen is what happens at the trade deadline? Do the Sox go deeper into discussions for Halladay or stick to the bigger needs (IMO), the needs of a bat (Laroche was a nice platoon fix, need something bigger). The next couple of days should be exciting times in baseball. Maybe John Smoltz will get pushed out of the rotation by one of the best in baseball, maybe he will last long enough to contribute...

Smoltzie time

After waiting a little over a year to get back out there, John Smoltz will take the mound tonight against the Nationals. The odd part about that statement is what was unsaid. He will be pitching for the Boston RedSox and making his first career appearance without the familiar tomahawk on his chest. He will have different players fielding behind him, different catcher to throw to, AND different expectations.

"I know I'm going to be judged really fast by a lot of people," he said. "First impressions are always nice, but they're not the lasting impression."

Many will claim he should have retired if he gives up a few runs or gets chased early. Some will cry that he is ruining his legacy.

The RedSox, and Smoltz himself, have said over and over that the goal is to push forward and have Smoltz available and healthy come September and hopefully October.

The dream is for Beckett, Lester and Smoltz to anchor the postseason rotation (no offense to DiceK, Wakefield, and Brad Penny). The Sox would have the best postseason staff (on paper) this side of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz 10-15 years ago.

Getting to the postseason and having some success along the way is their collective goal.

I think regardless of tonight's outcome in Washington, Smoltz will have outings where he gives up more than anybody wants him to but he also will have outings where he amazes people. Take a look at this excerpt from :baseball reference



I've highlighted where I want to make some points:

Grey - time as the closer, not for today's discussion
Blue - extremely consistent ERA, granted against NL and pitchers batting
Orange - Incredible WHIP by today's standards, very consistent
Green - Great strikeouts per 9 and walks per 9 stats
Yellow - only times when his ERA was above 4.00

Smoltz isn't a pitcher that was on the way out when he got hurt last year. He was a pitcher, converted back to a starter, that was still dominating and putting in 30+ starts over the last 3 years prior to the injury.

His stats in those three years are very nice, 44-24 record, about a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, his strikeouts per 9 innings actually went up all three years and was abnormally high last year before the injury.

What fans in Boston don't know about John Smoltz (yet) is the fire he has burning. Sounds like a cliche but it really is different for him than others. He is an extremely intelligent pitcher that absolutely gets pissed off when he performs poorly. I can't imagine him ever shrugging off a bad outing.

If his body lets him, he could easily be the most important piece to the RedSox championship drive this year.

In case you missed the last statement I said Smoltz could be more important than David Ortiz's bat, than Josh Becketts golden arm, than Ellsbury's wheels. How deep would you like to have your rotation when you hit the postseason? How deep will the teams you face be?

Smoltz could be the best 3rd starter in the major leagues in about a month. If you judge him based on tonight, be prepared to change your judgement later on.

I think he does ok tonight, 5+ innings, couple of runs given up, gives the Sox a chance to win.

Does Vegas have odds on Smoltz getting a postseason start this year?
I would bet on it.

RedSox - musical chairs time

In modern baseball there haven't been too many instances of teams having too much quality pitching. None that I can come up with anyway. The current RedSox have such a problem. Thursday, John Smoltz will come off the DL. Here is the list of available major league quality starters they have:



Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Brad Penny
Tim Wakefield
John Smoltz
Clay Buchholz

7 fits into 5 spots how?

Great problem to have, everybody is talking about it, offering up their opinions.

I have read/heard :

a) Trade Penny while his stock is high, he has pitched better each time out
b) Demote DiceK to AAA or the DL
c) Demote DiceK to the bullpen
d) Demote Wakefield to the bullpen
e) go with a 6 man rotation for a while

None of these scenarios allow for Buchholz to come back up to the majors, he is tearing through AAA and already has a no hitter in MLB on his resume from 2007. He also has expressed some frustration in interviews lately with the path currently blocked to the majors.

Tony Massarotti, of the Boston Globe, wrote about this problem yesterday

He lays out the options, talks about the pro's and cons of each. Nice article, better yet were some of the responses in the comments section from readers. Someone named "chops" wrote:

How about a different approach altogether: make Matsuzaka and Smoltz "co-starters". Or to phrase the idea better, give Smoltz the role of "finisher" for Matsuzaka. Dice-K hasn't been getting past the 5th inning. Smoltz is 42 and coming off shoulder surgery: neither one is going to be throwing a lot of complete games. The argument against sending Smoltz to the bullpen is that he'd lack the every-five-games routine of a starter and the slow prep toward each start. But as Matsuzaka's "finisher", he could have that routine. Every five days he'd prepare, knowing he'd be brought in sometime during the game - the 2nd inning would be a good time in most Dice-K starts this year, but the 5th or 6th is what the Sox would hope for.

So Dice-K starts the game. He nibbles and throws 95 pitches through 4 innings, and Tito lifts him before the heart of the opponent's order gets their third look at him. Then Smoltz comes on and throws his 70 or 80 pitches and finishes the game or hands it over to the true bullpen in the 8th or 9th.

Now the bullpen won't be heavily taxed every five games to clean up Dice-K's mess, and both pitchers will be kept active, healthy, and fresh in case an injury occurs somewhere in the rotation, at which point the Sox can go back to a conventional rotation... or call up Clay Buchholz.

I like this idea, for the short term anyway. If DiceK continues to perform subpar, then let Smoltz take the hill for first pitch and make a decision on DiceK (minors/DL) later. This option buys you some time at least.

All this drama will unfold and take shape this week and into next week. A week from Saturday? RedSox are in Atlanta to play the Braves...this blogger has tickets and is hoping to see Smoltz take the hill against the ol' Braves and seek revenge on behalf of Tom Glavine as well as how Smoltzie was treated as well last off season.