Smoltzie time

After waiting a little over a year to get back out there, John Smoltz will take the mound tonight against the Nationals. The odd part about that statement is what was unsaid. He will be pitching for the Boston RedSox and making his first career appearance without the familiar tomahawk on his chest. He will have different players fielding behind him, different catcher to throw to, AND different expectations.

"I know I'm going to be judged really fast by a lot of people," he said. "First impressions are always nice, but they're not the lasting impression."

Many will claim he should have retired if he gives up a few runs or gets chased early. Some will cry that he is ruining his legacy.

The RedSox, and Smoltz himself, have said over and over that the goal is to push forward and have Smoltz available and healthy come September and hopefully October.

The dream is for Beckett, Lester and Smoltz to anchor the postseason rotation (no offense to DiceK, Wakefield, and Brad Penny). The Sox would have the best postseason staff (on paper) this side of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz 10-15 years ago.

Getting to the postseason and having some success along the way is their collective goal.

I think regardless of tonight's outcome in Washington, Smoltz will have outings where he gives up more than anybody wants him to but he also will have outings where he amazes people. Take a look at this excerpt from :baseball reference



I've highlighted where I want to make some points:

Grey - time as the closer, not for today's discussion
Blue - extremely consistent ERA, granted against NL and pitchers batting
Orange - Incredible WHIP by today's standards, very consistent
Green - Great strikeouts per 9 and walks per 9 stats
Yellow - only times when his ERA was above 4.00

Smoltz isn't a pitcher that was on the way out when he got hurt last year. He was a pitcher, converted back to a starter, that was still dominating and putting in 30+ starts over the last 3 years prior to the injury.

His stats in those three years are very nice, 44-24 record, about a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, his strikeouts per 9 innings actually went up all three years and was abnormally high last year before the injury.

What fans in Boston don't know about John Smoltz (yet) is the fire he has burning. Sounds like a cliche but it really is different for him than others. He is an extremely intelligent pitcher that absolutely gets pissed off when he performs poorly. I can't imagine him ever shrugging off a bad outing.

If his body lets him, he could easily be the most important piece to the RedSox championship drive this year.

In case you missed the last statement I said Smoltz could be more important than David Ortiz's bat, than Josh Becketts golden arm, than Ellsbury's wheels. How deep would you like to have your rotation when you hit the postseason? How deep will the teams you face be?

Smoltz could be the best 3rd starter in the major leagues in about a month. If you judge him based on tonight, be prepared to change your judgement later on.

I think he does ok tonight, 5+ innings, couple of runs given up, gives the Sox a chance to win.

Does Vegas have odds on Smoltz getting a postseason start this year?
I would bet on it.