6/10/08 Game 3 Preview

Game 3 Preview

Tonight's game 3 of the NBA finals has most everybody believing the Lakers will win, off of better play, better (home court) officiating, and the will of the crowd. All of these factors very likely will contribute to the outcome of the game. The Lakers haven't played great, specifically on defense, and, as ESPN writer John Hollinger writes, their shot selection

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-080610&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1

Hollinger concludes through the math on shot selection that the Lakers were choosing/settling for long range 2 point attempts significantly more often than the Celtics. He states that the shot in the lane or near the hoop and the 3 pointer are more desirable. I can't disagree but context has to be considered as well. He mentions KG and his tendency to take the 19 footer (2 pointer) as his primary shot. That is one example of a good long range jumper that muddies the water a bit. The biggest point of his article comes from mentioning the foul shooting discrepancy between the teams. If it is assumed that most foul shot attempts come from a close in shot attempt, then the Celtics show even a greater lead in "good" shot attempts through 2 games. Interesting to see if this changes in game 3 tonight.

Going further down the page (linked above) to Daily Dime #2, there is discussion about the comments Mark Jackson was making on the telecast Sunday about Paul Pierce being the most explosive offensive player in Celtic history. Give me a break. Talk about revisionist history. Mark Jackson was a rookie in 87-88 season, as Bird and the Celtics started to decline. Through his career, he faced only the Bird that was constantly sidelined with back problems, foot problems and other ailments of the style of play he demonstrated his whole career. Lets look at the components of offense and see how Pierce and Bird match up

Shooting:

Long Range 3pointers: Both players can and do hit 3 pointers at any point, call it even

Post up: Both players can post up defenders, but the abilities and variety of moves that Bird used gives him an edge up over Pierce. An entire offense was built around Bird's posting up and options off of it.

Driving to the hoop: Bird used his shooting ability to fake the shot and begin his drives. Pierce goes more one on one and muscles his way in. Both are/were effective, Bird's drives often resulted in a teammate dunk vs. Pierce often gets to the line for 2 foul shots. Both have good use of left hands to help free up opportunities.

Moving without the ball: Save for Reggie Miller, nobody in the history of the game has been as good as Bird in this offensive category. The announces like to talk a bit about Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton (last series) as some of the best, and they are, but Bird and Miller were so far ahead of everybody else in this category. While Pierce uses picks to create space he doesn't use that space to his advantage, often the defender is given time to recover before Pierce makes his move to the hoop.

Offensive Rebounding: This is a category that often is overlooked. It is a huge part of what made Bird elite. His anticipation of where the ball would bounce off the rim would allow him to get to it or tip it to a teammate. Pierce isn't a real factor on the boards.

Perhaps Jackson would have been more accurate if his comment was more about the power driving moves Pierce does. Clearly he has a knack for making a play in traffic and getting to the rim area while getting fouled. I don't think that is what Jackson was saying though, I think he got caught up in the moment of watching a current player and overstating his relation to others in history.

Back to tonight- energy, specifically on defense can keep the Celtics in this. If they are close down the stretch, it could be a great opportunity for the Celtics to steal one in LA.

BTW - in the same article (linked above) check out the Curt Schilling blog excerpt. Schilling was sitting next to the bench (LA) in game 2, he offers up what I assumed already, that Kobe hasn't grown up and everything to him is the fault of another player. Read and enjoy.

Prediction: Lakers 104 Celtics 92